The year the pundits and contemporaries had written him as finished – unable to dig deep when the going got rough, I said he’d make fools of you all.  He did.  The following year the same pundits said, “Yes, Peter managed a last final flare before blowing out but he won’t be a factor this year.  The others are too strong.”  I said he’d win and win he did.

Last year it seemed like folks were finally beginning to figure out that this man was not going gently into category of the “also ran” and in the end was the only one out there that kept the race exciting.  He ran like a god.

This year many are picking him to win.  Sorry but you’ve missed the opportunity to be prophetic.  This year Mr. Reid will simply have himself a good ol’ time.

So I’m afraid there will no amusing warnings from me.  There’s nothing to fear in the three time champ.

It’s my fault really.  Me and many of his other friends.  We spent more time hanging out this year than in years past.  As we’re not capable of swimming (sort of), biking or running with Peter, any time he’s spent with us has been time away from training.  There’s been a lot of late nights, coffee and food.  Some will question the latter, as he looks lean and fit, but I assure you, it’s all smoke and mirrors.  A half hour here and there in the weight room and you can fool even the most educated observer into thinking you’re something of a thoroughbred. 

In years past, Peter has had little time to spend with friends, as the focus of life has been that single day in October.  During those years his every action and thought has been made with the weight of knowing he will have just one eight hour period in which to justify his entire year – in fact his entire life leading up to that moment.  As his resume demonstrates, he has justified it with dignity.

If forced to make any predictions at all, it will be that Peter will continue that tradition of dignity this year and in the years to come – with more fun and less worries of winning.  Winning carries such weight and responsibility.  Who needs that?

Peter will have a good swim.  I’m certain of that.  Why, you ask, would he have a good swim if he’s not going to have a great race?  Good question.  Swimming is the element of the race he can do with his slower friends (they’re all slower) and so this year he’s been swimming a lot more.  I wouldn’t let it worry you if he comes out a bit ahead of schedule.  Things will sort themselves out.

But maybe just not right away.  I’m sure that after having a strong swim he’ll be buoyed by the temporary euphoria of a solid performance.  He may go out a little hard on the bike.  In fact I’m almost certain it’ll happen.  Just let him go.  When the Steinway salesman comes calling, you’ll be seeing him soon enough.  I expect this to occur later in the ride, as experience will carry him along.  So don’t panic if you’re getting splits that suggest he’s pulling away.

And even if you don’t catch him before the transition everyone knows that the ‘fit’ and the ‘almost fit’ are separated on the run.

He’ll come out of the gate like a cheetah looking for lunch but that’s only for the cameras and an obligation to his sponsors.  He’ll pull off a few fast miles then settle into a reasonable pace, taking time to cheer on the other runners.

It’s even possible that the first half of the marathon may be a bit head spinning but it’ll just be fumes.  And we all know what happens when the fumes are gone.

Here’s the thing though – a small word of advice, if Pete is in front of you at the half way or closing in fast, you may want to consider picking it up a bit just to be safe, you understand.  For as relaxed as he is this year, once he smells the barn he may get a bit anxious.  A negative split is not entirely out of the question.